Colour forecasting
What has the season got in store for us? How do we know what is going to be in stores around the world? This is where colour forecasting comes in. We as consumers jump into the shops as the newest collections come out. All the colour palettes have been chosen by colour forecasters from big fashion companies. But how do they decide what colours will be successful? This is because of what we have bought and what we have been doing for the past couple of years.
By looking at where people have visited, what festivals or events were popular and the biggest selling items forecasters are able to predict what we will buy up to two years in the future. Many big companies have already predicted what we will be wearing in fall/winter 2018 -19
"A season where colour is expressed as a message, driving an anti-black rebellion with subdued shades and darks. It features thrilling combinations of super plains with lively tones. It plays with vibrating colours, new shot looks, subtle iridescence and clean and hazy cloudy effects."[i] - premier vision F/W 2018 –19
With this, we can design and make new fashion designs based around the predictions, from big colour forecasting companies like WGSN, Pantone or other forecasters that present at shows like Premier Vision, ready for the upcoming years. This gives time to design and make new outfits. Fashion designers will also do forecasting to find out the style that is going to be in or they will look at the past, to bring back a trend that will go with the colours or go with their style forecasts that have been predicted for the upcoming year. Some designers can be influenced by a colour, a scene or event that has made a great impact on them.
How do fashion brands translate forecast colour trends into collections?
Identifying a trend is achieved through a continuous effort of compiling observations. It requires a lot of curiosity and interest in a wide array of subjects ranging from art and design, reaching over to science, technology, socio-economics, food as well as travel to name a few. Whilst gathering facts, at the root of it is also a personal intuition and an eye for what's next, that can't be taught or necessarily explained. You have to be constantly collecting ideas and images. Once you see there is a stream of images with one particular thread running through, it's very easy to see this is a trend, although sometimes a single image can be so powerful that it triggers an instant innovation and from these images, you can create a colour palettes.
With a colour palette, this can be used selectively to make designer palettes that only include a couple of colours that can make up the new seasons colours.
That also defines the difference between short-term forecasting and long-term forecasting which are key in the business.
"Long term forecasting (over 2 years ahead) is used by executives for corporate planning purposes. It is also used for marketing managers to position products in the marketplace in relationship to competition.”[ii] Fiber2Fashion
With long-term forecasting designers can get ready for catwalks and show you what new designs will be on sale for A/W 18 in A/W 17. This let the designers have a preliminary consumer reaction, to the new upcoming designs and this helps the designer know how many they will passably have to make for stores.
“Short term forecasting is used by product developers, merchandisers and production managers to give style direction and shape collections. For short term forecasting most apparel companies subscribe to one or more services, whose job is to scan the market and report on the developments in color, textiles and style directions."[iii] - Fiber2Fashion
This is used for fast fashion and designs that will be used for one season, many designers will make an outfit for red-carpet events that will only be worn one time. This type of outfit is made with short term colour trends and is more of a unique outfit for people that can afford to have custom made clothing. Short-term colour trends are also used for art and interior designs as new paints or fabrics for you to buy, as these are able to be produced faster and with less cost.
With trends that are very present on the Internet, in magazines, often stemming from the streets or the catwalks, it's easy to see they might have a 1 to 2-year cycle. Whereas some trends are very forward thinking – for example, the breakthrough in scientific textiles – that they require more in-depth investigation, risk-taking as well as brainstorming with experts from various fields of research. The final element to keep in mind is that some trends are perennial and so embedded in our common language that they never fully go away, for example, fifties ladies dress style or military-inspired clothing.
one iconic trend forecaster, Lidewij Edelkoort, says "trend forecasting is much like archaeology but to the future".[iv]
What she's referring to is the importance of recording information. This is also how important it is for trend forecasters to have a very good knowledge of what was designed 20 years, 50 years or over 100 years ago. Every trend has its origins somewhere in history. So, whilst you're looking into the future, you also have to take into account past references, so that you see what people have been into and understand why it was a trend. Forecasters research fashion history books, blogs, or interior design for example and it's very interesting to see the common denominators with what's being designed today. You realise it's one big creative loop that is constantly growing and updating itself. So, this is like how the small black dress comes back in style each year around winter time.
Many people are following trends on the internet and creating their own self-image today, Though Instagram, Twitter, Pinterest and many other websites we are able to share our own styles and make our own trends. A good example of this is would be Harajuku street fashion many people share their individual styles and make unique trends that are the shared on the internet and in magazines like Fresh Fruits.
So, for trend forecasters, this is a challenge. Of course, forecasters are inspired by bloggers, street shots and viral events/videos on the internet, so they have to keep you to date with everything that is going on around them, but forecasters also have to bring a unique take on trends. So that they can stay ahead of the crowd and develop new and exciting style that will spark interest, forecasters have to take a different point of view, one that’s adventurous and exciting and to always think of themselves as people who influence, not followers. So that they can develop new colours, designs and trends for the designers to go off and create new things for us to buy.
If you look at high street stores for our first example of colour forecasting being used in retail we will see that places like New Look, Super Dry and Primark have changing lines to the season and these are following the colour trends
New look
S/S 2017
A/W 17
Super Dry
S/S 2017
A/W 17
Primark
S/S 2017
A/W 17
As you can see with high street store the prints and colours change between season and all this is based off colour forecast that, as store will go off them so they are able to make fast fashion line of clothing.
In my next blog, I will be using a case study of All Saints to explain how colour can be used within a designer label.
[i] http://www.premierevision.com/en/fashion/summary-fashion-directions-autumn-winter-1819/
[ii] http://www.fibre2fashion.com/industry-article/83/fashion-forecasting?page=1
[iii] http://www.fibre2fashion.com/industry-article/83/fashion-forecasting?page=1
[iv] http://blogs.bl.uk/inspiredby/fashion/